Decision-Making and Desistance: The Relative Importance of Changing Expectations and Changing Preferences

The Criminology Forum is pleased to welcome Dr. Kyle Thomas from The University of Missouri for his talk on October 12th in Oswald Tower room 406!
When Oct 12, 2018
from 02:00 PM to 03:00 PM
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Dr. Thomas applies a rational choice framework to the decision-making processes underpinning criminal desistance. First, he examines if subjective expectations of offending are age-graded, such that perceptions of rewards decrease, and perceptions of risks/costs increase over age. Second, he tests if the latent marginal (dis)utilities that derive from these expectations (e.g., preferences for risk, costs, and rewards) are age-graded in ways that promote declines in offending. He presents results from a study that uses a decomposition model to partition differences in offending from adolescence to young adulthood that are attributable to changing subjective expectations (E) and changing marginal utilities (β) among a subset of the Pathways to Desistance sample (N = 585). He then introduces a discrete choice random utility model to estimate between- and within-person differences in preferences and demonstrates how the model can be used to examine predictions outlined in prominent theories of desistance.